Does AMH predict my chances of falling pregnant with IVF?

Yes and no. This is because the most important determinant of pregnancy success is embryo quality, which is in turn heavily reliant on egg quality. Since AMH levels estimate egg numbers rather than egg quality, they do not strictly predict chances of pregnancy success.

But the answer is a bit more complicated than this. Although AMH levels do not strictly predict pregnancy success with IVF, higher AMH levels are nevertheless linked with better IVF outcomes for two main reasons. Firstly, AMH levels are highest in young women who also have the best quality eggs. Secondly, the higher egg numbers associated with a higher AMH level will increase the chances of finding at least one good-quality egg compared to women with very low AMH levels and egg numbers.

To put this in perspective, young women (late twenties and early thirties) with low AMH levels still have a good chance of pregnancy success with IVF because when egg quality is very good, only one or two eggs are needed to achieve success.

In contrast, women in their forties have a lower chance of success with IVF regardless of whether AMH levels are high or low due to poorer overall egg quality.

However, for women in the older age-range, high AMH levels will improve chances, since more eggs can be obtained thereby increasing the chances of finding one with good-quality.